It is now quite clear that we would have to limit average warming of the earth’s temperature to below 1.5oC by 2100 relative to preindustrial periods. This would require peaking of global emissions no later than 2020. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was released in 2007 had clearly specified 2020 as the year when emissions must peak even for a range of GHG concentrations to limit temperature increase to 2.0oC. Yet emissions have increased, as recently as in 2018, and the computation for 2019 has yet to be finalized. What is needed is a sharp reduction in global emissions to reach a peak level in 2020 and a sharp decline subsequently. Can the Twenty Fifth Conference of the Parties (COP) come up with a clear commitment at least on the part of the historically large emitters for ensuring that emissions peak no later than 2020?
The IPCC in its Special Report on 1.5oC has provided four different scenarios of emissions for limiting temperature increase to 1.5oC by 2100, and what is provided below is one such scenario in which social, business and technological innovations result in a lower energy demand up to 2050 while living standards rise especially in the global south. A downsized energy system enables rapid decarbonization of energy supply. Afforestation is the only carbon dioxide removal option, and the scenario does not involve carbon capture and storage, neither for fossil fuels nor for bio energy with carbon capture and storage.
It is now also apparent that the decarbonization in terms of reduction in global emissions should preferably occur by 2040 and certainly not later than 2050. Given the large headway to be made in decarbonization by 2040 and certainly not later than 2050, peaking of emissions by 2020 is imperative. Can global society and decision makers be motivated and convinced on reaching this goal within the next year or so? And can the youth of the world be motivated to take the lead?
As part of the POP (Protect Our Planet) Movement, which was launched on Earth Day 2016 as a global not-for-profit initiative, the youth of the world can certainly carry out large scale advocacy for decisions that lead to reduction of greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide in particular. But, more importantly they can make their educational institutions and organizations to which they belong non-emitters of carbon dioxide. They could do a great deal by:
1) Reducing wastage of energy and increasing energy efficiency.
2) Using renewable sources such as photovoltaics where feasible.
3) Reducing all forms of waste such as single use plastic and conversion of food waste into biogas, and improving water use efficiency.
4) Reducing each individual’s carbon footprint including the manner in which youth use transport such as walking, cycling or using public transport.
We now need action and given the crisis we are facing the youth of the world must adopt and follow Mahatma Gandhi’s advocacy, “Be the change you want to see in the world”. And if we start now with dedication through collective action then surely the nations of the world would at least take effective action under COP 26 if not in COP 25.