The recent floods that have afflicted the city of Venice highlight the risks that sea level rise would impose on low lying areas across the world, of which Venice as a city ranks among the most vulnerable. The country of Bangladesh which has a high population density living on a very low lying area of land, for instance, will face not only the problem of sea level rise but also coastal area related extreme events. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC clearly stated “Global mean sea level rise will continue during the 21st century, very likely at a faster rate than observed from 1971 to 2010. For the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, the rise will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.55 m for RCP2.6, and of 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP8.5. Sea level rise will not be uniform across regions. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95 per cent of the ocean area.”
Also, it clearly highlighted the projection that global mean sea level rise will continue for many centuries beyond 2100. From available evidence, AR5 concluded that “sustained global warming greater than a certain threshold above pre-industrial would lead to the near-complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet over a millennium or more, causing a global mean sea level rise of about 7 metres”. We, therefore, cannot possibly allow global average temperature to go beyond 1.5oC by the end of this century, if the risks of sea level rise of several metres are to be avoided.
Even in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC, it had been estimated that a range of concentration of GHGs which would correspond approximately to a 2 degrees rise in temperature by 2100, would lead to sea level rise from thermal expansion alone in the range of 0.4 to 1.4 metres.
There is now a growing consensus that if we continue with business as usual, then in the month of September, possibly before 2050 there would be no Arctic sea ice. This clearly has major implications for all forms of life in that region. A major study published in Nature Communications, highlights global vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal flooding. Scott Kulp and Benjamin Strauss use a new digital elevation model which projects that under a low carbon emissions scenario (where greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2020), about 190 million people will be occupying land that will be below projected sea levels for 2100. The study estimates that under a high emissions scenario (where greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise through the 21st century), about 630 million people across the world would live on land that will be below projected annual flood levels for the end of the century.
Yet, emissions of GHGs have gone up in 2018, and preliminary estimates in 2019 appear to move in the same direction. We have the 25th Conference of the Parties (COP) being held in Madrid, Spain under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A valid question to ask before this COP is whether the global community can demonstrate a resolve to take clear and definite action rather than spending two weeks merely arguing on the editorial changes in the texts of sterile resolutions adopted, which have proved rather ineffective in dealing with the core of the problem. Can we, for instance, come up with a framework for pricing of carbon emitted by different countries, adhering, of course, to the principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities”?
A price on carbon is now essential, because that would be the only means by which we provide an economic incentive to move away from a carbon intensive growth path. As per a recent study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), unfortunately, fossil fuels still receive a staggering level of subsidies. That study states, “Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 per cent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 per cent of GDP) in 2017”.
The mobilisation of young children led by Greta Thunberg is significant, but a sad reminder of how selfish our generation is in ignoring the huge risks that today’s younger generation and those that come after them would face. Almost every species on earth show deep concern for its progeny, but human society is now so caught up in the materialism which we have become accustomed to, that they are, therefore, ignoring the safety and security of our own children and grandchildren.
Can COP 25 make a sharp departure from the sterile sessions which have been the record of previous COPs, and at least the 25th session we hope would display a sense of inter-generational responsibility by taking effective action.